Lovington, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

675
FXUS64 KMAF 180441
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1041 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1037 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

- A strong cold front moves across the area Saturday evening,
  ushering in temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal through
  early next week. No impactful wintry precipitation expected.

- Dangerously low wind chills will likely (> 80% confidence)
  necessitate cold weather products early next week.

- Temperatures warm closer to normal by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 143 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough extending from the
Panhandles southwest to Baja de Norte.  Closer to home, visible sat
imagery shows the fetch of high cloud moving southeast.  Areas to
the northwest are mixing higher winds down, with winds already
gusting to over 60 kts at Carlsbad Caverns.  While not yet showing
up on real well on imagery at 18Z, surface obs indicate there`s
plenty of BLDU accompanying these higher winds.

These winds look to have enough momentum to continue after sundown,
but fall below criteria late this evening.  Unfortunately, a cold
front will settle in behind the exiting trough, signaling the
beginning of a fairly lengthy cold snap. That said, this first
front is fairly weak, and surface flow will actually veer back
around to light return flow Saturday afternoon. That said,
overnight minimums will come in ~ 6-8 F above normal for this time
of year.

Saturday, under northwest flow aloft and a colder approaching cold
front, temperatures will struggle, topping out at or a couple of
degrees below normal.

The aforementioned cold front will arrive Saturday evening and
this one looks to be considerably stronger than the first one. Gap
winds look possible at KGDP, but don`t look long/strong enough in
duration for a watch attm. A few flurries will be possible
northern Lea County, but subcloud layers remain dry, and the way
models have been trending, even flurries may not materialize.
Seeing no reason to disagree with NBM, we`ll stay close to its
numbers, which will take overnight lows down to 6-8 F below normal
on average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

High temperatures will run 20-25 degrees below normal Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday following the passage of Saturday`s cold front
as high pressure sets in at the surface. Most of the area will see
temperatures top out in the mid 30s to low 40s on these days, though
southeasterly winds Monday will help bring some "warmer" air our
direction (upper 30s and 40s for most). Meanwhile, temperature
minimums in the teens and low 20s will be commonplace, especially
for the northern Permian Basin, where the coldest morning
temperatures are expected. We are still very confident (> 80%) that
cold weather products will be necessary for a large portion of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico for wind chills in the single digits
during the early morning hours.

An upper-level disturbance is expected to move over the region
Monday night into Tuesday morning. However, most ensembles (except
the Canadian, which has been a big outlier in general for this
event) continue to indicate that most of the area will remain dry,
with the best moisture - and thus the better precip chances -
confined to the east/southeast. Therefore, even though a stratus
layer is still forecast to develop in advance of this system,
precipitation chances have continued to trend down for our area.
There could still be some flurries, particularly for our east/
southeastern counties, but have elected to forego including a
mention of them in the gridded forecast today.

Temperatures start to rebound Wednesday as large-scale troughing
shifts further east and a more northwesterly flow regime begins to
set up. Another upper-level disturbance is forecast to help bring a
front to the area Thursday, though this one will only keep
temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s (similar to Wednesday`s
highs). Otherwise, temperatures will continue to warm back closer to
normal (upper 50s and low 60s) through the end of the period.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

VFR has returned to all terminals as strong winds continue to
diminish and dust settles. A cold front located near LUB will
continue to move south, switching winds to the north later this
morning. A stronger front will arrive toward the end of the
current TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               33  50  21  36 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 38  60  23  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   46  70  28  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            43  64  23  41 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           36  51  21  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    30  53  18  34 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    35  57  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     35  53  22  36 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   35  54  22  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     35  59  23  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29